Susanna JENKINS
Principal Investigator
Assistant Professor, Asian School of the Environment
Phone:
65927753
Email:
susanna.jenkins@ntu.edu.sg
Office Location:
N2-01B-23
Research Group:
- Volcano, Hazards, Risk and Society
Team:
The central theme of my research focusses on quantifying and reducing the impact of volcanic activity on people and the assets upon which they depend, such as buildings, infrastructure, and agriculture. Volcanic hazard and risk is an emerging research field that relies upon sparse empirical, theoretical, and experimental data in order to provide advice to stakeholders before, during, and after a crisis. My research tackles the challenges inherent in forecasting hazard and risk in a data-poor environment through field studies, numerical modelling, and the statistical interrogation of large datasets.
Key research areas are:
- Reconstruction of past eruptions and impacts through numerical modelling, remote sensing, post-eruption field studies, and the scientific analysis of historical reports;
- Statistical analysis of eruption datasets to provide forecasts of future eruption style, frequency, and magnitude for volcanoes across different spatial and temporal scales;
- Probabilistic volcanic hazard and risk assessment through the development and application of numerical models coupled with statistical approaches to managing uncertainty, such as Bayes theorem;
- Quantification of the physical vulnerability and fragility of societal assets (e.g. humans, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture) to volcanic hazards through pre-, syn- and post-eruption impact studies (both field-based and remotely sensed);
- The development and analysis of global impact databases.
Education:
BSc (Hons) (Geology) University of Leeds 1999
MSc (Geophysical Hazards) University College London 2004
PhD (Physical Geography) Macquarie University 2009
Professional Experience:
Susanna Jenkins is a Principal Investigator with the Volcano Group at Earth Observatory Singapore. Her research focusses on volcanic hazard and risk assessment. She studied Geology and Geophysical Hazards in the UK (University of Leeds and University College London, respectively) and received her PhD from Macquarie University in Australia. Susanna held a post-doctoral position in Cambridge and an AXA research fellowship post at the University of Bristol prior to joining NTU.
Publications:
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(2021). Filling the Disaster Data Gap: Lessons from Cataloging Singapore’s Past Disasters. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science.
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(2020). Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 20(4), 1069-1096.
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(2020). From eruption scenarios to probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis: An example of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 397,
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(2020). Reconstructing eruptions from historical accounts: Makaturing c. 1765, Philippines. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 404,
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(2020). Modeling Downward Counterfactual Events: Unrealized Disasters and why they Matter. Frontiers in Earth Science: Geohazards and Georisks. 8,
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(2020). Remotely assessing tephra fall building damage and vulnerability: Kelud Volcano, Indonesia. Journal of Applied Volcanology. 9,
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(2020). New insights into source and dispersal of Mediterranean S1 tephra, an early Holocene marker horizon erupted at Mt. Erciyes (Turkey). Quaternary Science Reviews. 249,
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(2019). Intra-eruption forecasting. Bulletin of Volcanology. 18(34),
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(2019). Forecasting explosion repose intervals with a non-parametric Bayesian survival model: Application to Sakura-jima volcano, Japan. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 381, 44-56.
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(2019). Timber-framed building damage from tephra fall and lahar: 2015 Calbuco eruption, Chile. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 347, 142-159.
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(2019). Tephra cushioning of ballistic impacts: Quantifying building vulnerability through pneumatic cannon experiments and multiple fragility curve fitting approaches. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 388,
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(2019). Data schemas for multiple hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Disaster Prevention and Management. 28(6), 752-763.
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(2018). Evaluating relative tephra fall hazard and risk in the Asia-Pacific region. Geosphere.
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(2018). Statistical analysis of dispersal and deposition patterns of volcanic emissions from Mt. Sakurajima, Japan. Atmospheric Environment. 179, 305-320.
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(2018). Meteorological Controls on Local and Regional Volcanic Ash Dispersal. Scientific Reports. 8,
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(2018). Very rapid cooling of the energetic pyroclastic density currents associated with the 5 November 2010 Merapi eruption (Indonesia). Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 358, 1-12.
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(2017). Volcanic fatalities database: analysis of volcanic threat with distance and victim classification. Journal of Applied Volcanology. 6(1), 15.
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(2017). Human survival in volcanic eruptions: Thermal injuries in pyroclastic surges, their causes, prognosis and emergency management. Burns. 43(5), 1051-1069.
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(2017). Damage from lava flows: insights from the 2014–2015 eruption of Fogo, Cape Verde. Journal of Applied Volcanology. 6(6),
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(2017). Estimating Building Vulnerability to Volcanic Ash Fall for Insurance Purposes. Journal of Applied Volcanology. 6(2),
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(2016). The devastating impact of the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano, Indonesia. (Duarte, J. C., & Schellart W. P., Ed.).Plate Boundaries and Natural Hazards. 259-270.
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(2016). Agricultural impact assessment and management after three widespread tephra falls in Patagonia, South America. Natural Hazards. 1-63.
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(2016). Challenges of volcanic crises on small islands states. Advances in Volcanology. 1-18.
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(2015). Developing building damage scales for lahars: Application to Merapi volcano, Indonesia. Bulletin of Volcanology. 77(9), 1-17.
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(2015). Global volcanic hazard and risk.
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(2015). Impacts from volcanic ash fall. (Papale, P., & Shroder J. F., Ed.).Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters. 47-86.
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(2015). Extreme Volcanic Risks 2: Mexico City. (Papale, P., & Shroder J. F., Ed.).Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters. 315-354.
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(2015). Volcanic ash fall hazard and risk. (Loughlin, S. C., Sparks R S. J., Brown S. K., Jenkins S. F., & Vye-Brown C., Ed.).Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk. 173-221.
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(2015). Volcanic ash fall hazard and risk. (Loughlin, S. C., Sparks R S. J., Brown S. K., Jenkins S. F., & Vye-Brown C., Ed.).Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk. 173-221.
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(2015). Rapid emergency assessment of ash and gas hazard for future eruptions at Santorini Volcano, Greece. Journal of Applied Volcanology. 4(16),
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(2014). Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 276, 105-120.
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(2013). The Merapi 2010 eruption: An interdisciplinary impact assessment methodology for studying pyroclastic density current dynamics. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 261, 316-329.
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(2013). Paroxysmal dome explosion during the Merapi 2010 eruption: Processes and facies relationships of associated high-energy pyroclastic density currents. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 261, 260-294.
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(2012). Regional ash fall hazard I: A probabilistic assessment methodology. Bulletin of Volcanology. 74(7), 1699-1712.
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(2012). Regional ash fall hazard II: Modelling results and implications. Bulletin of Volcanology. 74(7), 1713-1727.
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(2012). Handbook for volcanic risk management: Prevention, Crisis management, Resilience. (Bignami, C., Bosi V., Costantini L., Cristiani C., Lavigne F., & Thierry P., Ed.).Handbook for volcanic risk management: Prevention, Crisis management, Resilience.
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(2011). Volcanic risk: Physical processes and social vulnerabilities. (Wisner, B., Gaillard J-C., & Kelman I., Ed.).Handbook of Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction and Management.
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(2011). Tools for identifying hazards. (Wisner, B., Gaillard J-C., & Kelman I., Ed.).Handbook of Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction and Management.
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(2010). A Global Earthquake Building Damage and Casualty Database. (Spence, R. J. S., So E., & Scawthorn C., Ed.).Human Casualties in Earthquakes. 65-79.
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(2008). Multistage volcanic events: Tephra hazard simulations for the Okataina Volcanic Center, New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface. 113(F04012),
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(2007). Volcanoes: A Neglected Hazard?. Disasters. 78, 40-43.
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(2007). Multi-stage volcanic events: A statistical investigation. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 161(4), 275-288.
Publications:
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(2019). Tatun volcano and Volcanic hazard mitigation Monitoring and hazard management. Asian Consortium of Volcanology.
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(2019). Challenges of volcanic hazard assessment with limited data. Asian Consortium of Volcanology.
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(2018). The 18th century eruption of Makaturing volcano, Philippines: A catalyst for slavery, raiding and regional conflict. New Dimensions for Natural Hazards in Asia: An AOGS-EGU Joint Conference.