Abstract
Coastal vulnerability models serve as decision-support tools to identify high-risk areas and develop ranking systems to assess the relative vulnerability of coastal communities. The InVEST Coastal Vulnerability Model, developed by Stanford University's Natural Capital Project, is a recent approach that evaluates the Exposure Index, demonstrating strong performance in tropical regions. This comprehensive framework integrates physical factors with assessments of social vulnerability and economic impacts. While numerous studies have focused on tropical coral habitats in open-ocean systems, coastal vulnerability assessments remain scarce in semi-enclosed water bodies, such as the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara (SoM). These regions, which differ from tropical reef ecosystems, lack an in-depth understanding of coastal vulnerability risk. This study focuses on the SoM and conducts the necessary analyses by considering various parameters. The obtained results show significant exposure levels, with 28% of the coastline classified as low risk, 60% as intermediate risk, and 12% as high risk. The results highlighted that the highest hazard index values were concentrated along the eastern coast of Istanbul, the northern parts of Yalova, the southern parts of Kocaeli, as well as certain sections of the coastlines in Bursa, Balıkesir, and Çanakkale. Examining different climate change scenarios, such as SSP1-1.9, SSP4-4.5, and SSP8-8.5, reveals contrasting trends in the risks posed by storm surges and sea level rise. This underscores the importance of thoroughly understanding regional vulnerability differences, which can guide the development of customized adaptation strategies to enhance the resilience of coastal communities around the SoM.
Keywords
Climate change, coastal hazard, Coastal Vulnerability Index, Earth Sciences, InVEST model, Oceanography, Sea of Marmara