Abstract
At the Osa Peninsula in southern Costa Rica, magnitude >7 earthquakes have been generated along the Middle American trench in 1904, 1941, and 1983 following a ∼40-year recurrence interval, suggesting a rupture may be impending. However, regional interseismic coupling remains poorly constrained, largely due to sparse observations that are likely contaminated by aliasing effects of repeating shallow slow slip events (SSEs) that occur roughly every 4 years, but were only discovered recently. These SSEs, while likely reducing megathrust coupling near the trench, may load or trigger the next rupture of the 1983 asperity. Using new continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data from an updated and densified regional network, we derive inter-SSE rates of deformation and invert for slip deficit and megathrust coupling along the Middle American Trench, implementing block modeling to correct for the motion of the Panama microplate. We invert for slow slip and remove a time-averaged estimate of cumulative slow slip from our models. Our results indicate that the region of highest inter-SSE coupling (>0.8) corresponds with the spatial extent of SSE slip. We also find that SSEs are sufficient to release nearly all the elastic strain accumulated over their 4-year recurrence interval in localized regions. Accounting for this, in the region immediately downdip of the slow slip patch—the same region thought to have ruptured in the 1983 Mw 7.4 event—we estimate an interseismic coupling ratio of ∼0.5–0.7 corresponding to ∼1.75–2 m of accumulated slip deficit since 1983, sufficient to generate a similar magnitude rupture in the future.
Keywords
Bayesian inversion, stochastic modeling, Time-series analysis